Sometimes it’s comforting to have a rigorous, numbers-based analysis tell you something you already pretty much know. In this case, most Americans understand that there are intercity corridors in this country that would be ideally suited for high speed rail investment. But the smart folks at America 2050 have done a great deal in advancing the national conversation by putting together a report (pdf) that ranks which potential HSR routes are the best candidates for investment–that is, which will have the greatest ridership demand.

The rankings are based on six factors: population, the size the local economy, distance between cities (with 250 miles being optimum), the quality of the local transit networks at each end, how bad the highway congestion is both cities (on the idea that this dissuades driving), and whether the cities are in a mega-region (more on that here). [SButtonZ button="digg"]

Naturally, tops on the list was a NY-Washington DC link–probably as good a natural candidate for HSR as any route in the world. Six of the top 10 pairs, in fact, are overlapping segments on the larger Washington-Boston route.

Confusingly, that very route is today served by the Acela, which many people think is high speed because it looks like a high speed train, what with the pointy aerodynamic nose, fancy seats, Euro-style name and all. But in any meaningful sense the Acela is just a device to fool ourselves–rather like chewing gum when you’re hungry. It theoretically could go fast, but doesn’t do so because the tracks just don’t allow for it (except one little stretch blah blah — a taunting and meaningless exception).

Also in the top ten are LA-SF and, charmingly, the Dallas-Houston route that Edward Glaeser poopooed in his unimpressive “back of envelope” analysis over at the NYT’s Economix blog.

The top 25 are city pairs are:

It’s worth noting that the much slagged “levitating Mickey Mouse gambling train” route from LA to Vegas comes in a respectable #23. Current plans on that line would only connect Vegas to the High Desert hellhole and meth mecca of Victorville though — and we’re not sure that would rank quite as high (no offense, V’villians!).

The report proposes three phases of investment and construction, as shown on the map above. Top priority are the Northeast, California and a Midwest network. Next are Florida, an Atlanta to DC link, Dallas to Houston, Portland to Vancouver BC, and few others. Then there is a third tier of projects, including routes connecting Philly to Chicago, NYC to Buffalo, and Denver to Albuquerque.

Overall, America 2050 has made an important addition to the high speed rail debate, offering some empirical basis for ranking potential investments.

Frankly, though, the report also highlights for us it just how frustrating the situation is in the Northeast, and how charming it would be to have some brutally determined Robert Moses type in national government who could cut through all the crap, destroy lives when necessary with total impunity, and spend the $10 billion or so necessary to straighten shit out and make the Northeast rail corridor the crown jewel-class national asset it really deserves to be. (Well, we enjoy that modern day Moses stuff as a naughty fantasy, anyway.) Many people make the point that getting one world-class line that works in this country will win over as proof-of-concept residents of other regions. And they tend to suggest California should be that one. Which is fine except that the California project is still 15 years or so from impressing many people and is not quite as good a candidate as the Northeast. Really the way to jumpstart serious HSR investment in other regions would be to get real-life 150+ mph trains rolling between Boston and DC, and to make that happen in, like, four years. But that’s a post for another day!

Tags: REPORTING