
We’ve frequently bounced around the question of what level of gas prices would start to meaningfully change Americans’ driving behavior. It seemed like we started to get an answer last summer, when pump prices were topping $4. The financial calculus of commuting from the far suburbs for a middle class salary seemed to be unraveling, but the spike was so abrupt and short-lived, and there was so much other craziness going on with the world of high finance in flames and the real estate market imploding and the stormclouds of an epic recession looming, it was hard to tell exactly what was driving the action.
A new survey from IBM called “The Commuter’s Challenge” confirms that the $4 - $5 range for gas really is the breaking point for a large number of Americans. Asked at what gas price they would seriously consider other options for commuting (besides motoring solo) a stunning 70 percent of people pegged their magic number at $5 or less. If it were a Family Feud question, $5 itself would be “number one answer,” in fact, representing 21 percent of respondents.
With our political system rather mired at the moment and incapable of proactive (or even appropriately reactive) policy-making, it seems more and more likely that meaningful progress toward a more efficient and sensible transportation system will come about only if/when petroleum prices head back into three-digit land. If oil bounces back to $150 or above, we’ll start getting smart as a matter of practical necessity and all this ideological tussling over cars and freedom and rail and socialism will fall to the wayside.
Somewhat related: An interesting notion that’s been gaining some currency lately is the four-day work week, as road-tested by the state of Utah. While it would require some fiddling with the way we do things, a “staggered” four-day week would be a cure to urban congestion in many cities and would instantly cut commuting costs by 20 percent. It would also give Americans a lot more free time.
The IBM study doesn’t mention 4-day weeks per se, but it does pose the question of what people would do if they spent less time driving to the office:
How would people spend their extra time if their commutes could be reduced?
• 52% would spend it with family/friends (+9% points from 2008)
• 37% would partake in recreation (+3% points from 2008)
• 37% would exercise (+6% points from 2008)
• 33% would sleep more (+2% points from 2008)
• 11% would work more (+2% points from 2008)
Sounds wonderfully healthy. Almost European, even (except for the exercising part). In reality, maybe that time would be spent playing first-person shooter games and eating Funyons instead of going on bike rides and having family dinners–but we can always hope.









