Bad. Really bad. Time reports:
The middle and working-classes have been hammered by the Great Recession and no industry has taken it more on the chin than construction. Nationally, unemployment fell to 9.7% in January, but in construction it jumped to 24.7% from 18.7% in October. In many regions, union officials report 30% of their members are unemployed or “riding the bench.”
Commercial, residential — doesn’t matter. When there’s no financing, there’s no building, which means no jobs for a huge sector of the workforce that is not used to going long stretches with nary a job prospect in sight.
Simply waiting around for the economy to pick up and large-scale building projects to restart might be overly optimistic — there is evidence to support the idea that building will never return to the levels it hit during the massive bubble that popped in 2008. Certainly residential building will see a long-term slowdown, with the mortgage crisis continuing to wreak havoc on home values and unemployment still sky high (meaning minimal demand for all those new houses). And the huge hit taken by commercial real estate also indicates that office buildings won’t be in high demand for years to come.
So where will the job relief come from in the construction biz? It looks unlikely that the private sector is the answer. So we’re left with government projects. Passenger rail, anyone?
February 9th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Not just teh actual construction but the engineering and architectual fields are suffering. I have been out for 18 months with only a brief 3 month job. From what I have heard upwards of 20% of the engineering field have been laid off in Ohio and that is low for those of us who are the techs and designers. Companies held onto engineers but laid everyone else off. There is as of yet no ‘bounce’ at all from the stimulus money as it has gone to ’shovel ready’ projects but could not be used for design, couple that with a severe downturn in design work that preceeded the actual recession - back about 4-5 years now and soon there will be no roadway construction jobs as there will be nothing designed.
It is extremely frustrating to read all of the ‘infrastructure’ talk and realize that is all it is…talk.
It is worrying that being away from the game for so long will harm our abilities to get jobs again whenever the consultants begin to think it is safe to hire again.
I don’t want to be standing on one of teh interchanges I have helped design and be holding a cardboard sign with ‘Will Design Roads for Food’ on it.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
I guess my question is, how many people total are there that have been let go from construction jobs?
Building HSR sounds great, but my guess is that only a fraction of them could ever be absorbed into something like this.
February 9th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
I was a contract employee for a state’s engineering office, doing electrical design for state buildings. I got laid off in August, with no real prospects since. I’ve talked with my former co-workers and they haven’t gotten a new design project since before I left. They’re just doing construction support work. Though, it has allowed them to get some work done on their master spec sections that were outdated for the introduction of MF95.
I’d love to work on HSR projects, but I haven’t a clue how to get in on that. Are there firms that are starting to bid on the design work for these projects, if so, who?
February 9th, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Not just passenger rail. This nation needs a new New Deal. Our water/sewage systems are crumbling. Our dams are crumbling (Katrina? Sacramento’s dirt and soil dams?). Our electrical systems are antique. They waste somewhere around 70% of the power pumped into them. So in other words, our electrical system in 30% efficient. Our Interstate system is crumbling. The system, built to last 50 years, is falling apart literally. We need better internet broadband connection to those without it and upgraded to those who do. We need updated freight lines, we need updated public transportation systems, and we sure as hell need the rebirth of passenger rail and the improvement of that which still exists. AmTrak needs a new fleet. Even the airlines need updated Air Traffic Control systems. Not to mention many of the ports, inland and sea ports, that need upgrades.
Passenger rail alone might not be able to absorb all those construction workers into a job. But I have a feeling that updating our sewage, water, internet, rail, interstate, dams, ports, streets, public transportation systems that need upgrading could absorb a hell of a lot of those workers. (God knows what else there is to do. I know that’s not all)
From the beginning our nation’s expansion has revolved around huge infrastructural programs. From the canals, Transcontinental Railroad, paving our roads, interstate highway system, etc. we have maintained an infrastructural system to keep up with our economy. Time to do it again… Even though it’s YEARS delayed.
I’m sorry. I just stated everything that we all know already… But in my opinion, it can’t be said enough. Not until it’s actually done.
Thanks,
Jake
February 9th, 2010 at 9:06 pm
Something that was mentioned in the Blueprint America documentary is that in 1980 the Federal Gov’t (I think it was just the Feds - wasn’t clear) spent 3% GDP on infrastructure and today after the Reagan Revolution 1.3%. I had never heard that it dropped that much, I had realized that much of the spending had been given back to the States and local gov’ts who struggle just to maintain what was built in the 80’s and before.
This is where I am most interested in the idea of the Infrastructure Bank as a potential method of paying for what we need to have done. But I am skeptical about a National Bank working well for the whole country, I’d rather see a series of regional ones that could better adapt to local conditions and needs.
Come on I just want to get back to work
February 10th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
Hearing the comments from around the country is scary. In CA, I know some architects that are out of work, but most engineers I know are keeping busy. This is in the transportation field. My firm has not won much new work, however, there have been some projects coming across our radar.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:27 pm
I’m an optimist. I believe the recession will be a bad memory in a couple of years. Even an expedited HSR build out scenario, with projects completed in six years (perfectly reasonable if we are serious) probably wouldn’t help until the help isn’t needed. I also believe each project should stand on its own two feet as meeting a transportation need.
For you pessimists, lets look at the costs and effects. For the sake of perspective only, lets look at the projects in “War Units” with each unit being the costs of our wars for a week. (I happen to support our wars, in case you are wondering).
Cal= 15 WU–The cost of our wars until Memorial Day.
Major Upgrade Acela = 3.5 WU.
Orlando-Tampa = 1 WU.
Chicago-Minneapolis= 5 WU.
As per an economic study in this site last week, a $20 billion per year expenditure with ripple effects employs maybe 400,000. Not as good as massively increasing unemployment benefits if you want stimulus. Pretty good if you want something for your money.
How to pay: The recently expired estate tax provided $20 billion per year. Over the six year transportation funding cycle, that would pay for the above plus 2-3 other projects of your choosing.
Or: The top 400 taxpayers (Those with AGI over $235 Million) pay an effective tax rate of 17%. During the Bolshevik days of Ronald Reagan they paid 24%. That’s $10 billion per year, enough for a new line every year.
February 13th, 2010 at 4:29 pm
Jim, what’s a war unit for you? It looks like $2.5 billion, but I’m not sure.
March 13th, 2010 at 11:12 pm
Urban planner writing from bankrupt CA - I echo all sentiments. except the WU piece. It is quite frustrating to hear all of the “talk” about infrastructure stimulus. Yet, where is the $$ to fund planners to work with the GC’s/Builders to plan the infrastructure in the first place. Can we say CEQA or NEQA? Do we still have a permit process in municipalities with most cities/towns going bankrupt? Yep. We sure do need a New Deal policy approach and most immediately. I’m like everyone else. I just want to get back to work. Period.