Comments on: Was Solar Energy Cheaper In The 1980s? http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/ America Under Construction Fri, 12 Mar 2010 11:12:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 By: Nathanael http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9742 Nathanael Sat, 31 Oct 2009 01:04:17 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9742 Yeah, these numbers simply illustrate that reporters do a really bad job at reporting *anything* related to energy. As far as I can tell, almost none of those articles were even accurate on their *own* terms, let alone comparing them to other articles. So, as a study in the decline of the news media, possibly interesting. In regard to infrastructure? Not interesting at all. As an interesting data point, having researched the details of solar, I found that things people don't always think about make a *huge* difference; a cheap tracking mount increases output by 25%-100%, but almost nobody knows this, and the cheap tracking mounts are only sold in Australia! Given wild variations like this, I do not believe *any* generic estimate of the "cost" of solar. The numbers are gobbledegook. Yeah, these numbers simply illustrate that reporters do a really bad job at reporting *anything* related to energy. As far as I can tell, almost none of those articles were even accurate on their *own* terms, let alone comparing them to other articles.

So, as a study in the decline of the news media, possibly interesting. In regard to infrastructure? Not interesting at all.

As an interesting data point, having researched the details of solar, I found that things people don’t always think about make a *huge* difference; a cheap tracking mount increases output by 25%-100%, but almost nobody knows this, and the cheap tracking mounts are only sold in Australia!

Given wild variations like this, I do not believe *any* generic estimate of the “cost” of solar. The numbers are gobbledegook.

]]> By: Jim http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9193 Jim Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:53:53 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9193 Without any types of government or utility subsidies it is exactly $6.89 per installed watt...and just $4.50 if I install it myself ($2.50 per watt is what you pay the company/dealer to install the system). Without any types of government or utility subsidies it is exactly $6.89 per installed watt…and just $4.50 if I install it myself ($2.50 per watt is what you pay the company/dealer to install the system).

]]> By: Jim http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9192 Jim Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:51:34 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9192 BTW: My 3 kW system is just $2.66 per installed watt!!! That is cheap folks! BTW: My 3 kW system is just $2.66 per installed watt!!! That is cheap folks!

]]> By: Jim http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9191 Jim Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:50:46 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9191 My 3.0kW grid-tie system will end up costing me $8,000 after the $3 per watt APS rebate, the $1000 Arizona tax CREDIT (NOT deduction) and the 30% federal tax credit. My 3.0 kW system will make me 100% efficient (no need to pay for any power from the local utility company). Now, if you work $8000 into a home mortgage that is just $48 per month, AND you have ADDED value to your home! Also, this article doesn't even adjust for inflation. In 1987 a 12-pac of budweiser cost about $5, now it is around $8.49. A move in 1987 was around $4, now it is at least $8. And on and on... My 3.0kW grid-tie system will end up costing me $8,000 after the $3 per watt APS rebate, the $1000 Arizona tax CREDIT (NOT deduction) and the 30% federal tax credit.

My 3.0 kW system will make me 100% efficient (no need to pay for any power from the local utility company). Now, if you work $8000 into a home mortgage that is just $48 per month, AND you have ADDED value to your home!

Also, this article doesn’t even adjust for inflation. In 1987 a 12-pac of budweiser cost about $5, now it is around $8.49. A move in 1987 was around $4, now it is at least $8.

And on and on…

]]> By: The Canada Pine Beetle | Solar Power in Massachusetts http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9173 The Canada Pine Beetle | Solar Power in Massachusetts Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:07:43 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9173 [...] Was Solar Energy Really Cheaper In The 1980s? » INFRASTRUCTURIST [...] [...] Was Solar Energy Really Cheaper In The 1980s? » INFRASTRUCTURIST [...]

]]> By: Get Rid of Junk Mail – Go Green | Solar Power http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9166 Get Rid of Junk Mail – Go Green | Solar Power Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:52:25 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9166 [...] Was Solar Energy Really Cheaper In The 1980s? » INFRASTRUCTURIST [...] [...] Was Solar Energy Really Cheaper In The 1980s? » INFRASTRUCTURIST [...]

]]> By: Save the Plastic Bag or Ban the Plastic Bag? | E Energy World http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9161 Save the Plastic Bag or Ban the Plastic Bag? | E Energy World Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:58:51 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9161 [...] Was Solar Energy Really Cheaper In The 1980s? » INFRASTRUCTURIST [...] [...] Was Solar Energy Really Cheaper In The 1980s? » INFRASTRUCTURIST [...]

]]> By: Peter Sharma III http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9153 Peter Sharma III Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:52:49 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9153 This is why efficient small-wind wins in the end. Our Green Revolutions Windmill (http://greenwindmill.com) needs only 2.5mph to generate 5Kw at a current retail of $6K or about $1.20/watt installed. Depending upon the metrics used above, that is about $0.03/Kwh. We are producing an average 3200Kwh/month in a Class 1 wind zone with our windmill, which is scalable to megawatt capacities. We will install a 30Kw unit at a cost of about $12K to $14K in November in downtown Brattleboro. Most small-wind devices cannot produce such efficiencies at low speeds yet some of us can. The advantage of ours is the simplicity of design and low cost of goods combined with a high efficiency of air-flow capture. This is why efficient small-wind wins in the end. Our Green Revolutions Windmill (http://greenwindmill.com) needs only 2.5mph to generate 5Kw at a current retail of $6K or about $1.20/watt installed. Depending upon the metrics used above, that is about $0.03/Kwh. We are producing an average 3200Kwh/month in a Class 1 wind zone with our windmill, which is scalable to megawatt capacities. We will install a 30Kw unit at a cost of about $12K to $14K in November in downtown Brattleboro.

Most small-wind devices cannot produce such efficiencies at low speeds yet some of us can. The advantage of ours is the simplicity of design and low cost of goods combined with a high efficiency of air-flow capture.

]]> By: pvinsights.com http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9117 pvinsights.com Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:50:10 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9117 The solar systems costs included solar panels cost, peripheral component cost, and installation cost. These three costs should seperated to discuss. According to PVinsights, www.pvinsights.com, solar panel cost should be much lower than that in 1980's by efficiency improvements. Installation cost should be highly influence by inflation rate and labor cost. Hope any one can explain the peripheral cost. Peripheral components are inverters, charge controllers, back up batteries, and so on. The solar systems costs included solar panels cost, peripheral component cost, and installation cost. These three costs should seperated to discuss. According to PVinsights, http://www.pvinsights.com, solar panel cost should be much lower than that in 1980’s by efficiency improvements. Installation cost should be highly influence by inflation rate and labor cost. Hope any one can explain the peripheral cost. Peripheral components are inverters, charge controllers, back up batteries, and so on.

]]> By: L.A. Davidson http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9116 L.A. Davidson Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:16:25 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9116 I want my 5 minutes back. I want my 5 minutes back.

]]> By: danny http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9113 danny Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:29:43 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9113 It does raise some questions, but they are pretty easily explained. 1) In the 80s, monocrystaline silicon was in lower demand than now. This is due to both lower demand for both microprocessors and for silicon solar cells. Now we have intense demand for both. Since microprocessors are using most of the silicon, and microprocessors create more value from the same raw materials, they can afford to bid up the prices of monocrystaline silicon. 2) With a new technology, strong fixed-price asset, depreciation schedules are unreliable because they are just predictions. Since production solar cells were "new" in the 80s, we didn't know how fast they would deteriorate. Now we realize they wear much faster. This increases depreciation schedules, and as such raises the costs. 3) Some of the difference is made up in inflation. Probably not very significantly, but at least some of it. It does raise some questions, but they are pretty easily explained.

1) In the 80s, monocrystaline silicon was in lower demand than now. This is due to both lower demand for both microprocessors and for silicon solar cells. Now we have intense demand for both. Since microprocessors are using most of the silicon, and microprocessors create more value from the same raw materials, they can afford to bid up the prices of monocrystaline silicon.

2) With a new technology, strong fixed-price asset, depreciation schedules are unreliable because they are just predictions. Since production solar cells were “new” in the 80s, we didn’t know how fast they would deteriorate. Now we realize they wear much faster. This increases depreciation schedules, and as such raises the costs.

3) Some of the difference is made up in inflation. Probably not very significantly, but at least some of it.

]]> By: Chris http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9112 Chris Tue, 20 Oct 2009 02:21:25 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9112 I recall reading in The Economist or hearing in a physics colloquia about the price jump in the 80's relating to solar cells. The reason was that the original solar cells from the time were made with the excess silicon that say Intel would have thrown away after etching their chips or wafers that weren't up to spec. The solar companies would buy these wafers at a reduced price. Once solar became a large business the chip makers jacked up the price and solar was forced to make it's own wafers. This may not be the whole story, but certainly could have contributed to the jump in price. I recall reading in The Economist or hearing in a physics colloquia about the price jump in the 80’s relating to solar cells. The reason was that the original solar cells from the time were made with the excess silicon that say Intel would have thrown away after etching their chips or wafers that weren’t up to spec. The solar companies would buy these wafers at a reduced price. Once solar became a large business the chip makers jacked up the price and solar was forced to make it’s own wafers.

This may not be the whole story, but certainly could have contributed to the jump in price.

]]> By: A J E M http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9105 A J E M Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:45:32 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9105 What you have here is a collection of old & new hype, out of context numbers and mismatched programs. You're not just comparing apples & oranges, you've got raisins & grapes, plums & prunes & various odd bits of fruity nonsense. The record according to newspapers & the like is almost totally useless, as most of the stuff comes directly from hyped-up manufacturer's press releases or from journalists who don't know a kilowatt from a kilowatt-hour...... If you take away gov't subsidies, most of the solar industry would collapse (this applies to any country in the world). The only truly cost effective application of solar energy in North America is solar pool heating...... What you have here is a collection of old & new hype, out of context numbers and mismatched programs. You’re not just comparing apples & oranges, you’ve got raisins & grapes, plums & prunes & various odd bits of fruity nonsense.

The record according to newspapers & the like is almost totally useless, as most of the stuff comes directly from hyped-up manufacturer’s press releases or from journalists who don’t know a kilowatt from a kilowatt-hour……

If you take away gov’t subsidies, most of the solar industry would collapse (this applies to any country in the world). The only truly cost effective application of solar energy in North America is solar pool heating……

]]> By: admin http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9103 admin Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:21:27 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9103 Of course. Not pretending to make a rigorous price comparison here, so didn't feel it was necessary to make inflation adjustments. For the record, though: 25 cents in 1990 is equal to 40 cents in 2008 dollars. Jebediah Of course. Not pretending to make a rigorous price comparison here, so didn’t feel it was necessary to make inflation adjustments. For the record, though: 25 cents in 1990 is equal to 40 cents in 2008 dollars.

Jebediah

]]> By: Andrew http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/10/19/was-solar-energy-cheaper-in-the-1980s-or-did-newspapers-just-report-it-that-way/comment-page-1/#comment-9101 Andrew Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:15:19 +0000 http://www.infrastructurist.com/?p=5375#comment-9101 You need to adjust for inflation. You need to adjust for inflation.

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