Which “Chinese” do you know? The Chinese I know and live among keep the air conditioning on full strength and at freezing temperatures. They use inefficient AC curtains - a strong blast of air - at the entrance of retail shops rather than using automatic doors.

The Chinese word for AC literally means “cold air” and most people over here have taken that to heart. Rather than conditioning the air, they make it so cold that office workers leave sweaters & jackets in the office year round.

Global crude oil production peaked in 2008.

The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.

Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.

Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly,” December 2008, page 1) http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_monthly.pdf.

Peak Oil is now.

Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of “Giant Oil Fields” (2008 to 2018)

Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.

Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

“By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.”

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

The Chinese make ice at night using the cool night air, so the heat pump doesn’t have to work so hard. This is insulated and then when cooling is required in the afternoon, the cooling circuit uses this to cool the building. THIS IS REAL BASIC STUFF if you think about it!

A lot of energy is used for cooking, and if people had the chance to save on their electric bill by doing so, they could cook foods overnight, baking or slow-cooking like crockpots, or programmable ovens/microwaves. Refrigerators could be designed with storage tanks for compressed refrigerant- sounds excessive, but then, grid prices are still pretty reasonable. Also with Home Heating, systems like Radiant Floors or Trombe-walls can let you use the cheap Predawn power to preheat your thermal mass.

Charging Electric Cars, Scooters and Bikes can of course be pretty flexible draws on your Utility Service, and could be built to vary the charging rate dependent on constant price signals. This would be a form of storage that could use Nighttime Power, Midday Power when the owner is at work.. (If we were smart enough to insulate the hot climates out of their massive A/C Dependency), and Fall and Spring times.. when we do actually still use power, and would be happy if it were largely supplanted by wind.

Finally, wind is only ‘completely unpredictable’ when you don’t pay attention to the patterns. There is variability, but also recurring patterns. Beyond that, we have a couple of forms of storage that could be built up to handle surplus wind, Pumped Hydro, Pumped Air.. and the possibility to use SmartGrid EV’s and other growing battery options for storage as well.

Some engineers are the type to say ‘It can’t be done’.. but I am left to wonder if they’re really saying ‘I just don’t want to do it, it’s too hard.’ It will be hard, and it will be expensive.. but I think the alternatives will only be worse.

Bob